Index Predicts Modest Growth in Retail Sales for Christmas Trading

In what is starting to feel like déjà vu, retail sales growth will remain positive despite a modest slowdown heading into the December quarter according to the latest AFGC CHEP Retail Index released today.

The Index shows year-on-year growth again slowing, from 3.5 per cent in the June Quarter to 2.5 per cent in the September quarter. The Index forecasts a further softening heading into the December quarter with year-on-year growth at 1.5 per cent.

Additionally, on a monthly basis, the Index shows year-on-year growth of 1.9 per cent in September slowing to 1.6 per cent in November 2016.

Australian Food and Grocery Council CEO, Gary Dawson, said: “The larger-than-expected fall in retail sales growth reflects a number of factors such as moderating jobs growth and record low wages growth, a long-term deflation in food and grocery retail prices domestically and increasing input costs. This all adds up to the outlook, while still one of growth, being less robust than the food and grocery sector would like to see especially heading into the December quarter holiday period.”

President of CHEP Asia Pacific, Phillip Austin, said: “We know through experience that the Index is a very accurate lead indicator of retail sales growth. The insights provided by this forecast should help customers prepare for and manage their supply chains more efficiently throughout this period.”

The AFGC CHEP Retail Index is a collaborative project between the Australian Food and Grocery Council and CHEP Australia, powered by Deloitte. The Index uses CHEP transactional data based on pallet movements and is a lead indicator of Australian Bureau of Statistics Retail Trade Data.

The next AFGC CHEP Retail Index will be released in late January 2017.  To read the Index and access more background information, click here or visit



More information:

AFGC Media Contact: James Mathews 0407 416 002

CHEP Australia Media Contact: Kathryn Crofts 0437 108 844

Brambles Media Contact: Dzintra Horder 0405 711 786